Bain Macro Trends Group analysis of the global Covid-19 outbreak suggest that businesses should activate first-level contingency procedures that include mitigating immediate threats to staff, such as restricting nonessential travel to avoid stranding travelers due to quarantines; reviewing and even deferring nonstrategic investments; and planning for a business environment that’s equivalent to a quarter-of–a-year recession.

The Situational Threat Report (SITREP) Index is a composite assessment based on all available information about epidemiological, economic and social conditions tied to the outbreak (read “About the SITREP Index” below). On March 12, Bain raised the SITREP Index to Level 6.